So much has been written and shared about Brexit that I was starting to feel left behind. So I decided to write some thoughts down.
1. I was surprised at the result. Honestly, I did not think Out with win. The matter of fact is, though, it won, but very much marginally. And I find it astonishing the consistent results in Scotland and Northern Ireland as much as the consistent results in poorer areas of England that voted against the hand that feeds them.
2. This looks like a novel. Cameron wanting to secure his party back in the day, decided to initiate this referendum conundrum and he lost control over it. I remember him being against UK remaining in the EU until his friends from the City advising him otherwise. Foreseeing the capitals fleeing and with them the jobs and investments.
Now, it seems, he has come to the end of the line.
Unfortunately, he has started a time of political uncertainty. Not only in the UK, as the world that we live in now implies much deeper consequences.
3. Xenophobia is on the rise. Which is something I don't like to dramatize - as sometimes it seems that everything is some sort of discrimination - but it is happening, because ignorants feel validated and empowered by the vote of the majority. It was thrown out from the mouth of Nigel Farage who has been caught in a blunt lie, when he could not ensure that the money going to the EU per day will go to NHS. I do ask him: where the hell is it going then?
Anyway, there have been reports of a rise on xenophobic comments both online and on the streets against people that come to the UK to work and therefore contribute to the greater good. Through taxes, you know. People that often pick up jobs that otherwise would go undone. Or start investments. From Europe or beyond.
4. The results already saw the pound crashing and the announcements of jobs being moved out of London. HSBC, Goldman Sachs amongst others have made such accouncements.
It is true that having a special relationship with the EU can secure jobs and capital in the city, but the big companies are ready to move to Paris, Frankfurt or Amsterdam because they do understand the effects of the Brexit and do understand the benefit of being in a fully integrated single market such as the EU.
5. I was surprised at the immediate German response to the result: a meeting of the founding states of the EEC. Something that does not exist and which core we have moved on - which is also the cause of the situation we are in now, I'd say.
I find preposterous that Europe is not learning from this. Instead of having a broad conversation with everyone - which is to happen anyway - a chit-chat of a VIP club that does not exist took place.
6. I am still surprised at this second referendum initiative. Not for the initiative itself - as it is always good to see citizens engaged - but because we cannot just have referenda all the time when we do not agree with the results of the previous voting. Imagine if that applied to general elections as well. What can be done, in my humble opinion, is to start an initiative for a new referendum once conditions have changed. Nicola Sturgeon already hinted at this, concerning the independence of Scotland - given the consistency of results.
Eventually, I am not sure if the relationship of the United Kingdom with the European Union will change that much, to be honest - as they had guaranteed many exceptions as is. There will be changes for foreigners living there, for sure, and more so for Europeans wanting to move to the UK. But vice-versa as well, lest we forget the pensioners in Spain, Portugal or Cyprus.
Economically, financially and in terms of people movement, the UK will be like Norway or Switzerland: being part of the European Economic Area - so, no tariffs, no borders. And no say in the decisions the EU make.
We also need to consider something else, despite the big question mark now on the political future of the UK: will Brexit really happen? The results of referenda in the UK are not binding. And the tendency in the Houses of Parliament is very much pro-Europe.
And will the UK fall apart? That is a very good question, given the sensitiveness of the different nations within it. I would say Scotland might try something and might get it, but Northern Ireland would have a harder time, given its history and its divisions. Which can surface again, if things become really nasty.
Anyway, if Scotland goes for independence and asks to join the EU, Spain will likely vetoe it. As they do not want to give any false hopes to the Basque Country or, most importantly, to Catalunya.
I also wonder, if Brexit does move on, how will the government of the UK address the concerns of the poorer areas of its territory? I mean, with the devaluation of the currency and the exit of some big companies (possibly leading to more unemployment and, for sure, a lower tax collection), where will the money come from to be given to those areas needing help from the government? And how will it cope with the rise of prices that will necessarily happen?
Lastly, what I would like to see from the other side of the fence - the EU - would be a concerted reaction to this, towards an improvement of its bureaucracy, of its crushing of the smaller and poorer countries, of its distance from its citizens. We cannot go on living like this Brexit vote did not just happen. It's not a "you love me as I am or you leave me". It's not a German club. It's not a financial club.
If we do not change the EU for better, more radicalization will spring up. Look at Le Pen, Wilders. Or Hungary or the last presidential elections in Austria.
One thing I know for sure: I should be in London now and not two weeks ago. Shopping would be much cheaper.
